The AI Bubble: Current State and What to Expect

The AI Bubble Today

• Market exuberance: Since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, major tech companies—Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Tesla—have seen exponential growth in their valuations. Nvidia, for instance, surpassed a market value of $4 trillion in 2025.
• Euphoria stage: According to the World Economic Forum, bubbles go through stages of boom, euphoria, and eventual collapse. Right now, AI appears to be in the euphoria phase, with record investments and valuations increasingly detached from reality.
• Recent declines: In November 2025, companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, and AMD experienced sharp drops in their stock prices, reflecting investor anxiety.
• Warnings from leaders: Sundar Pichai, Google’s CEO, admitted there is an “element of irrationality” in the market and that no company will be immune if the bubble bursts.

Differences from the Dot-Com Bubble

• Concentration in tech giants: Unlike the internet bubble of the 1990s, which was driven by thousands of startups with little to no revenue, today’s AI bubble is dominated by large corporations with real profits, such as Nvidia and Microsoft.
• Massive infrastructure: Hundreds of billions have been invested in data centers and specialized chips, making the impact more structural and less dependent on small startups.

Warning Signs

• Overinvestment in infrastructure: Analysts like Jerry Kaplan warn that the massive build-out of data centers could pose financial risks if demand doesn’t keep pace.
• Limited enterprise adoption: Recent surveys show that AI usage among large companies has actually declined, raising questions about the narrative of widespread adoption.
• Aggressive accounting practices: Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, has accused tech companies of inflating profits through questionable accounting methods.

What to Expect

• Market corrections: Between 2026 and 2028, we may see adjustments in AI company valuations, especially if revenues fail to meet expectations.
• Industry consolidation: While some companies may struggle, the major players will continue to lead innovation. Even if OpenAI were to disappear, users would migrate to alternatives like Google’s Gemini or Anthropic’s Claude.
• Social and energy impact: AI will keep transforming professions and driving global energy demand. The challenge will be balancing innovation with sustainability.

✅ In conclusion: The AI bubble is in full swing, with clear signs of overvaluation and looming corrections. However, unlike the dot-com bubble, this sector is supported by powerful tech giants with solid infrastructure. That means turbulence is likely, but artificial intelligence will remain a key driver of economic and social transformation.